Munzir HakimiTable of Contents
fresh Insights ahead
Key Takeaways:
- The number of Bitcoin held for over 10 years is increasing faster than new coins are mined – 550 BTC/day versus 450 issued BTC/day.
- 17% of BTC is already considered illiquid, and projections suggest up to 30% by 2026.
Fidelity Digital assets released a report highlighting a pivotal shift in Bitcoin’s supply dynamics after the upcoming halving. The report noted that the “ancient” Bitcoin (BTC) supply,coins held for over ten years,has started to outpace new issuance,wiht 550 BTC entering the ancient supply category daily compared to 450 BTC issued.
!Bitcoin Daily Issuance vs Daily Ancient Supply Growth. Source: Fidelity Digital Assets
This trend raises an intriguing question: Could this increasing demand send Bitcoin’s price soaring towards $1 million?
Accumulation Meets Scarcity
The current ancient supply of Bitcoin exceeds 17% of total issuance (approximately 3.4 million BTC, valued at $360 billion). this reflects strong holder conviction, with daily decreases occurring less than 3% of the time.Projections indicate this share could reach 20% by 2028 and even 25% by 2034, tightening available supply.
!Ancient Supply Growth for Bitcoin. Source: Fidelity Digital Assets
Together,institutional investor capital is accelerating significantly. According to Bitwise, Bitcoin inflows are expected to reach $120 billion by 2025 and potentially $300 billion by 2026. Various participants drive this growth:
Nation-states reallocating gold reserves
US states adopting significant allocations
Wealth management platforms diversifying portfolios
public companies doubling their holdings
This accumulation suggests that a substantial portion of Bitcoin’s supply may become illiquid as demand continues to rise.
The Pathway to $1 Million
Achieving a price point of $1 million per bitcoin necessitates a market capitalization increase from its current level ($2.10 trillion) to approximately $21 trillion. Historical trends following halving events in 2013, 2017, and 2021 show rallies driven by reduced supply growth alongside rising demand-supporting the notion that current dynamics could lead us there again.
With around 17% currently classified as illiquid-and projections indicating it could grow-liquidity will tighten further if institutional investors maintain their purchasing momentum.
However, challenges remain; post-election volatility has seen declines in ancient supplies on nearly 10% of days-indicating even long-term holders can sell during uncertain times.
!Decrease in Ancient Bitcoin Supply in 2025. Source: Fidelity Digital Assets
Despite these fluctuations, Bitwise highlights potential sidelined demand due to risk aversion among major financial institutions managing vast client assets-a factor that underscores significant future demand potential for Bitcoin.
Final Thoughts Here
In summary:
The interplay between increasing ancient supplies and institutional inflows paints an optimistic picture for future prices despite existing challenges. While reaching $1 million remains ambitious, current trends suggest it may not be out of reach after all.
Reference
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Increasing Impact on Bitcoins Ancient Supply – Fidelity Digital Assets
Bitcoin Inflows Projected – CoinTelegraph
